RealityTrader Trading Log

Thursday, July 31, 2008

Jul 31 2008

Session Time: Thu Jul 31 00:00:00 2008
[08:04] {Threei} MA
[08:04] {Threei} REPORTS Q2 $2.11 V $2.02E, R $1.2B V $1.21BE
[08:04] {Threei} - Q2 Charge volume +15.7%{V AXP XLF TLT}
[08:11] {Threei} PREVIEW: US INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS DATA DUE OUT AT 8:30 AM ET
[08:11] {Threei} - Expectations for initial claims are 393K v prior release of 406K.
[08:11] {Threei} - Continuing claims seen at 3.150M v prior 3.017M.
[08:11] {Threei} PREVIEW: Q2 EMPLOYMENT COST INDEX EXPECTED AT 8:30AM
[08:11] {Threei} - consensus expectations at 0.7% v 0.7% last
[08:11] {Threei} PREVIEW: Q2 ADVANCED GDP ANNUALIZED AND PERSONAL CONSUMPTION DUE AT 8:30 AM
[08:11] {Threei} Consensus expectations:
[08:11] {Threei} - GDP Annualized: 2.3% v 1.0% prior
[08:11] {Threei} - Personal Consumption: 1.7% v 1.1% prior
[08:12] {Threei} PREVIEW: Q2 ADVANCED GDP PRICE INDEX AND CORE PCE Q/Q DUE AT 8:30 AM
[08:12] {Threei} Consensus expectations:
[08:12] {Threei} - GDP Price Index: 2.4% v 2.7% last
[08:12] {Threei} - Core PCE Q/Q: 2.0% v 2.3% last
[08:30] {Threei} INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS: 448K V 393KE;
[08:30] {Threei} CONTINUING CLAIMS: 3.282M V 3.150ME
[08:30] {Threei} - Prior Jobless Claims revised from 406K to 404K
[08:30] {Threei} Q2 ADVANCED GDP ANNUALIZED: 1.9% V 2.3%E; PERSONAL CONSUMPTION: 1.5% V 1.7%E
[08:31] {Threei} Q2 ADVANCED GDP PRICE INDEX: 1.2% V 2.4%E; CORE PCE Q/Q: 2.1% V 2.0%E
[08:56] {judijim} good morning all
[08:56] {Threei} Good morning
[09:08] {dptl} good morning all
[09:10] {Threei} dp :)
[09:13] {fernp} Good morning RT
[09:14] {Threei} fern :)
[09:16] {magoo} .,d.,jl,srgjlkj.ksadjl
[09:16] {Threei} lkf0578y7ngksyl?
[09:17] {cosmo} HOLX takes back 19 fwiw
[09:18] {cosmo} ...should hold 19 imo
[09:18] {magoo} so jiobs number stinx eh?
[09:18] {Threei} sure does
[09:19] {Threei} so let's rally
[09:19] {Threei} bad is new good, have you heard?
[09:19] {cosmo} bad is no good i thot
[09:19] {Threei} that's canceled
[09:20] {cosmo} oh
[09:22] {cosmo} HOLX is bad
[09:27] {tomg} gm all
[09:27] {Threei} tom :)
[09:27] {magoo} what u watchin vad?
[09:27] {Threei} so far usual suspects
[09:31] {magoo} are we down 108?
[09:31] {Threei} 115
[09:37] {peterg} gm group
[09:37] {Threei} peter :)
[09:37] {magoo} sheesh..fslr peaked after bell 311..
[09:37] {magoo} gave aallback
[09:37] {Threei} FNM
[09:37] {Threei} .61 long
[09:37] {Threei} .45 stop
[09:37] {magoo} in .58
[09:38] {magoo} l aapl .50
[09:40] {Threei} stop to .49
[09:41] {magoo} vad, rimm sh scalp?look
[09:41] {Threei} no read on a short side
[09:41] {Threei} no setup
[09:41] {magoo} well..will breathe
[09:41] {Threei} I don't short just because it's up a lot
[09:42] {Threei} will, of course,... but how do you tell from where?
[09:42] {magoo} a red candle is coming
[09:42] {magoo} out aaple .24 here
[09:42] {magoo} +.74
[09:42] {Threei} full buck up while we exchange
[09:43] {Threei} stop to .55 FNM
[09:43] {cosmo} HOLX wants 20 hod
[09:43] {Threei} don't want to wait too long for it to work
[09:43] {lars} nice job aapl magoo :)
[09:43] {Threei} market moves, either FNM follows or let's limit our risk
[09:44] {magoo} lars...if play aapl rimm small shares like 300 - 500 ok?
[09:44] {magoo} minus 200 bux is standard stop i use
[09:44] {lars} understood thx
[09:45] {Threei} SYMC
[09:45] {magoo} little room to avoid rinse..small shares to control risk
[09:45] {Threei} 21 break long
[09:45] {Threei} JULY CHICAGO PURCHASING MANAGER'S INDEX: 50.8 V 49.0E
[09:45] {magoo} in
[09:45] {magoo} .99
[09:45] {Threei} .89 stop
[09:46] {magoo} vasd right..rimm would habve got me short
[09:46] {Roman} 21 long ESLR
[09:46] {Roman} 21 small
[09:47] {magoo} vad..news RIMM?
[09:47] {Threei} 07/30/08 06:17pm [RIMM] Bullish mention on Jim Cramer's MAD MONEY - CNBC
[09:47] {magoo} ahhhhhhhhhhhhhhh
[09:48] {Threei} 1:1 FNM
[09:48] {Threei} (fiiinally)
[09:48] {Threei} took its sweet time
[09:48] {Threei} 1:1 SYMC
[09:49] {Threei} 1:2
[09:49] {Threei} I am out
[09:49] {magoo} me out now .23 TY BOSS
[09:49] {Threei} welcome
[09:49] {kazaam} alxn?
[09:49] {magoo} out here .75 FNM...ssob yt
[09:49] {Threei} 93 break
[09:50] {Threei} very thin
[09:50] {lars} + .29 symc thx!
[09:50] {Threei} volatility is beyond my risk tolerance
[09:50] {Threei} lars :)
[09:50] {magoo} wtg lars
[09:50] {lars} still half in fnm
[09:51] {Threei} FNM 1:2
[09:51] {Threei} can I go home?
[09:51] {magoo} what u think??
[09:51] {lars} no.... please no :)
[09:51] {Threei} lol
[09:51] {Threei} after morning activity dies I am going to call stops only :)
06[09:52] * Threei is trying to blackmail his way to a day off
[09:52] {lars} + .30 fnm 2 for 2 Vad!
[09:52] {Threei} good job lars
[09:52] {peterg} have to agree; I am stumbling over my fingers
[09:52] {Threei} especially satistfying to see such perfomance from newer mebemrs
[09:53] {magoo} sigh...he never once said nice thing about magoo
[09:53] {lars} thx... i am playing very small shares now
[09:53] {Threei} ugh mags
[09:53] {Threei} I had about 10 competing comebacks to that one
[09:53] {magoo} oh oh
[09:54] {magoo} lol
[09:54] {lars} till i get comfortable with risk and probability
[09:54] {Threei} and you have no idea what effort and self-control it took me to refrain :)
[09:54] {magoo} lars..dino mentioned this 2 me monthsago...size down..mkt to wippy..good plays getting rinsed
[09:55] {magoo} give me at least 1 boss
[09:55] {lars} you guys are awesome though
[09:55] {lars} i checked a few sites... your the best
[09:55] {Threei} thank you lars, we believe so too
[09:55] {magoo} did u ever go to my site??
[09:55] {Threei} ok mags, this one is the most polite:
[09:56] {magoo} oy
[09:56] {lars} hmmm no...
[09:56] {magoo} GOOD
[09:56] {lars} maybe
[09:56] {lars} :)
[09:56] {Threei} "they don't make glasses so deep-pink that I need to find anything nice about you" VBG}
[09:57] {Threei} trust me, the remaining 9 are way way worse {G}
[09:57] {magoo} give me a worse one/...i respond better to negativity
[09:57] {Threei} lol
[09:58] {Threei} let's see if 101 acts as rejecting resistance for USO
[09:58] {Threei} if so, UAUA is play
[09:58] {Threei} reminder, what we want to see is sharp long red bar on USO
[09:58] {Threei} and UAUA giving delay for entry
[09:59] {lars} that worked great yesterday by the way
[09:59] {magoo} what is UAUA again,seriouslty?
[09:59] {Threei} airline
[09:59] {Threei} United
[09:59] {magoo} man..am i a daytrader or what?
[09:59] {Threei} established pattern of moving in inverted relation to oil
[09:59] {magoo} i truly do not know even the companies we hit repeadily
[09:59] {lars} lol magoo
[10:00] {Threei} I don't know most of them either :)
[10:00] {lars} it shows on my chart thats how i know
[10:00] {Threei} it's just that some names become players because of certain ceircumstances
[10:00] {Threei} and familiarizing myself with ceircumstances I come to an idea of aa trade
[10:01] {Threei} in the rest of cases I simply go wirth setups as they form
[10:01] {Threei} what does SYMC do?
[10:01] {Threei} {shrug}
[10:01] {Threei} day trader's answer:
[10:01] {lars} anti virus
[10:01] {Threei} it formed JBE and made us money
[10:01] {Threei} ah, it's Symantec?
[10:02] {lars} believe so
[10:02] {Threei} cool... I use their product AND make money of their stock?
[10:02] {lars} :)
[10:02] {Threei} double use? I love the company, lol
[10:03] {Threei} this USO/UAUA move was not very useable to me
[10:06] {kazaam} PCLN?
[10:06] {Threei} gosh... how do you manage to select stocks that move 50 cents in a single breath? :)
[10:06] {lars} USO new low
[10:06] {kazaam} lol
[10:07] {Threei} let'
[10:07] {Threei} s see how far UAUA can follow it
[10:08] {Threei} 10:06 USO bar was good enough for entry, 8.52 - .53 was available
[10:08] {Threei} I would expect it to be much higher already
[10:08] {Threei} new low USO but no new high UAUA
[10:09] {Threei} pattern maybe dying
[10:09] {lars} UAUA doesnt want to crack 8.60
[10:10] {Threei} check other airlines to see if the pattern stops working for all of them or its UAUA specific
[10:10] {Threei} NWA, DAL
[10:10] {Threei} I don't see any of them making new high on new USO low
[10:11] {Threei} so there is a good chance this trading idea is on its last leg
[10:11] {dptl} skyw may be
[10:12] {dptl} also air
[10:12] {Threei} same chart
[10:12] {lars} 100 USO support.... for now....
[10:12] {Threei} JBLU interesting chart for 5.50 break
[10:13] {Threei} SNDK
[10:14] {Threei} .26 long
[10:14] {Threei} under .15 stop
[10:15] {magoo} WOW alxn
[10:21] {kazaam} any ideas for HK?
[10:22] {Threei} range 32 - 32.50...
[10:22] {Threei} a bit too wide to play break
[10:22] {Threei} stop to .18 SNDK
[10:23] {Threei} don't want to give them breathing room as market moves farther from opening
[10:24] {Threei} WHITE HOUSE ECON ADVISOR LAZEAR: CURRENT DATA SHOWS THAT THE STIMULUS PACKAGE IS WORKING - CNBC INTERVIEW
[10:25] {peterg} I am very stimulated
[10:26] {Threei} FNM 12 break long
[10:26] {Threei} .85 stop
[10:27] {Threei} .89 stop
[10:28] {magoo} in
[10:30] {esemde} I'm here....all be it on my kids computor....but i'm here
[10:30] {Threei} ese :)
[10:31] {esemde} I hate computors!!!!....always somethin ...always somethin
[10:31] {Threei} FNM, feel free to take scalp
[10:31] {Threei} hate how long it takes
[10:34] {magoo} what about SNDK?
[10:35] {Threei} with this one I am more comfortable
[10:35] {magoo} i in fnm 12..u saying cut flat?
[10:35] {Threei} it doesn't have a history of sudden deep drops
[10:35] {Threei} I actually meant taking scalp when it was .07- .09
[10:36] {magoo} i am/was wait .14
[10:37] {Threei} out SNDK
[10:42] {lars} out half fnm
[10:44] {lars} fnm target?
[10:44] {magoo} im gettin out here
[10:44] {magoo} out .18, TY vad
[10:45] {magoo} lars ..it prob breathe
[10:45] {Threei} can't tell really lars
[10:46] {lars} out .14 ave thx!
[10:46] {magoo} out sndk .23..lil loss..no lunch
[10:46] {magoo} im on diet anywho
[10:49] {Threei} FRE
[10:49] {Threei} WILL DOUBLE INCENTIVES TO MORTGAGE SERVICER COMPANIES WHO ASSIST BORROWERS IN AVOIDING FORECLOSURE
[10:49] {Threei} {FNM}
[10:58] {kazaam} sbux?
[10:59] {Threei} 15 break if consolidates a bit here
[11:00] {Threei} right away without couple shallow pullbacks first - not sure
[11:02] {kazaam} if oil doesn't drop i wonder if the market will be able to break yesterdays highs
[11:10] {Threei} AGIX move is out of another era
[11:11] {esemde} do penny stocks not normally move like that in one day Vad?
[11:11] {esemde} don't play them so I don't know
[11:13] {Threei} well... in this market, no :)
[11:13] {Threei} there was time they posted incredible moves
[11:13] {Threei} long ago
[11:13] {Threei} 1000 years b.c
[11:14] {Threei} used to be quite a source of profits, considering you could easily buy 5-20 K
[11:15] {Threei} FNM bounce zone closer to 12
[11:16] {Threei} actually, missed it already
[11:16] {Threei} slept through a drop
[11:18] {magoo} [11:17] {Threei} slept through a drop
[11:18] {magoo} u bastard he he
[11:22] {Threei} REPORTEDLY IRAN HAS CUT IDLEING PERSIAN GULF TANKERS BY HALF
[11:22] {Threei} {USO}
[11:22] {Threei} no buyers?
[11:22] {Threei} world has more oil than it needs?
[11:23] {lars} or refiners cant use heavy oil?
[11:23] {Threei} REPORTEDLY IRAN HAS CUT IDLING PERSIAN GULF TANKERS BY HALF TO 5 SHIPS - UNCONFIRMED REPORT CITING TRACKING DATA
[11:23] {Threei} - sent 3 supertankers to Suez canal and one to Saudi Arabia
[11:23] {Threei} *This story was originally posted to clients entitled to Global Equities{USO}
[11:28] {magoo} sh rimm here .08
[11:35] {peterg} nice,lkg gd
[11:36] {magoo} ciover here .75, +.33
[11:36] {kazaam} nj
[11:36] {kazaam} why does j look like i
[11:36] {kazaam} J
[11:36] {Chaeron} hi all... good one magoo
[11:37] {magoo} chaer baby:)
[11:38] {peterg} wanna do it again?
[11:38] {esemde} CCCCCHHHH BABY!!!!!!!
[11:38] {Threei} chaeron :)
[11:38] {Chaeron} heya ese, Threei
06[11:43] * laserdave1 slaps laserdave1 around a bit with a large trout
[11:43] {laserdave1} before anyone gets a chance
06[11:43] * laserdave1 slaps Threei around a bit with a large trout
06[11:43] * laserdave1 slaps Chaeron around a bit with a large trout
06[11:43] * laserdave1 slaps magoo around a bit with a large trout
[11:44] {Chaeron} niiiiiiiiiiice
[11:44] {Chaeron} :)
[11:44] {laserdave1} ya sneak attack
[11:44] {laserdave1} u guys are usually so fast
06[11:45] * magoo slaps laserdave1 around a bit with a large trout
06[11:45] * magoo slaps laserdave1 around a bit with a large trout
06[11:45] * magoo slaps laserdave1 around a bit with a large trout
[11:45] {laserdave1} nice
[11:46] {peterg} love that fresh fish smell
[11:46] {Chaeron} Threei's asleep :)
[11:46] {Chaeron} can't blame him :)
[11:46] {Threei} hmm...?
[11:46] {Threei} where am I?
[11:46] {Threei} who is here?
[12:09] {kazaam} TAP?
[12:09] {Threei} no read
[12:10] {kazaam} ty
[12:11] {Threei} break of 54 or short of it, has equal chance of working
[12:13] {kazaam} do you see that spike of volume on TAP?
[12:13] {kazaam} what does that generally mean when its at a level like that?
[12:14] {Threei} not much
[12:14] {Threei} single bar weather not maketh
[12:14] {kazaam} gotcha
[12:14] {Threei} could be some block taken out
[12:18] {magoo} rimm sh
[12:18] {magoo} risky..small
[12:19] {magoo} .30
[12:20] {magoo} .56 stop
[12:20] {magoo} layout either .08 or 122.87
[12:21] {magoo} sigh
[12:22] {magoo} stopped
[12:53] {dptl} mhgc?
[13:01] {Threei} tough one
[13:01] {Threei} mostly because of general market sleepiness
[13:02] {dptl} ye looks like need market help
[13:03] {Threei} US TREASURY SEC. PAULSON: STIMULUS PACKAGE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT GDP IN 2H08; HOUSING STARTS MAY REMAIN WEAK THROUGH 2008, RECOVERY WILL TAKE MONTHS, NOT YEARS
[13:03] {Threei} - notes there are no new plans to help FNM and FRE
[13:03] {Threei} - Expects foreclosures and elevated inventory to stay elevated through 2009{FNM FRE}
[13:09] {Threei} SEC'S COX: SHORT SELLING RULE HAS REDUCED ABUSIVE PRACTICES, WILL EXPAND THE RULES OVER THE COURSE OF SEVERAL MONTHS
[13:09] {Threei} - Notes the SEC is cooperating with the Fed on financial regulations.
[13:11] {Threei} 12.20 break FNM... if market helps
[13:21] {dptl} got to go...have a good rest of the day all...see ya tomorrow
[13:21] {Threei} take care dp
[13:22] {hawkfan4} cya dp
[13:23] {kazaam} vad, your IF I WERE SMARTER exercise is perfect
[13:24] {Threei} :)
[13:24] {kazaam} fast and simple
[13:26] {Threei} that's me
[13:26] {Threei} simple
06[13:35] * Threei slaps laserdave1 around a bit with a large trout
[13:35] {Threei} and sometimes violent
[13:35] {Threei} particularly when I bored
06[13:41] * magoo slaps laserdave1 around a bit with a large trout
06[13:41] * magoo slaps Threei around a bit with a large trout
06[13:42] * magoo slaps Roman around a bit with a large trout
06[13:42] * magoo slaps Chaeron around a bit with a large trout
[13:42] {Threei} hmmm... magoo got tired?
[13:42] {Threei} I expected slapping rampage to continue through the whole list
[13:43] {Threei} instead he fell asleep with trout in hand after 4 slaps
[13:44] {magoo} strategic slapping
[13:45] {Threei} interersting strategy...
[13:45] {magoo} u should tru it lol
[13:58] {magoo} vad its timner for my daily question
[13:58] {Threei} down
[13:59] {magoo} lol
[13:59] {Threei} :)
[13:59] {magoo} thats it
06[14:00] * Threei reads in magoo's mind: "short at will!!"
[14:03] {magoo} lazer dcc
[14:04] {magoo} sh rimm small .64
[14:09] {magoo} dqam..stopped..thats twice
[14:44] {Threei} WM UPDATE: MOVES HIGHER AFTER TOSCAFUND DISCLOSES 6% PASSIVE STAKE - FILING
[14:48] {Threei} DEFENSE SECRETARY GATES: THERE IS A 'REAL POSSIBILITY' OF WITHDRAWING SOME MORE TROOPS FROM IRAQ
[14:48] {Threei} - Joint Chiefs Mullen: conditions have 'dramatically improved' in Iraq
[15:14] {kazaam} today made turtle racing look like formula 1
[15:14] {lars} lol
[15:16] {Threei} imagine how we handled whole summers of such
[15:17] {Threei} this slowness came about just last week, and only after couple active hours in the morning
[15:17] {kazaam} its seems the best way to play the summer would be to trade the morning and then take the rest of the day off....or is that just offensively lazy
[15:17] {Threei} no such thing as offensively lazy
[15:17] {Threei} lazy is good
[15:17] {Threei} in my eyes at least
[15:18] {Threei} don't know... I still prefer to be here and watch things
[15:18] {Threei} you never know when a company with $1 stock announces total cancer cure
[15:19] {Threei} FORMER FED CHMN GREENSPAN: ECONOMY IS HOLDING UP WELL, STRENGTH IS A 'SURPRISE' - CNBC
[15:20] {Threei} he forgot to add "despite my best efforts"
[15:28] {esemde} I'm with Vad....whenever I can.....just hang in there....ya just never know when the next cure all will come around
[15:31] {Threei} put one name in your memory for the more favorable market and for when it starts making its move
[15:31] {Threei} VVUS
[15:31] {Threei} HAVE A LOOK AT DAILY
[15:31] {Threei} nice ascending triangle shaping
[15:31] {Threei} holding xloselty below 52 week high
[15:32] {magoo} vad..nice sell feel
[15:32] {Threei} Greenspan continues
[15:32] {Threei} - Notes that we are 'nowhere near the bottom' in terms of household prices.
[15:32] {Threei} - still sees 50/50 chance for recession, though feels more inclined to believe the US is headed for a recession.
[15:32] {Threei} - believes that ultimately Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac will be nationalized, the GSE's are a 'major accident waiting to happen.'{FRE FNM}
[15:33] {Threei} send him a duct tape someone
[15:33] {Threei} this comment of his on FRE/FNM just tanked both
[15:34] {lars} wondered why big drop
[15:34] {Threei} 'cause of big mouth
[15:36] {lars} ya... better he just keeps quiet
[15:36] {Threei} sad thing is, we hear these things now from the man who engineered current crisis
[15:37] {lars} plus faith is sketchy with Ben
[15:38] {Threei} let's drop rates to historical lows and keep them there, let's not regulate lending practices and let's not regulate the process of motrgage securitization and consequent derivatives trading - signed: Greenspantrading
[15:38] {Threei} result - housing bubble born and left unchecked
[15:38] {lars} sad but true
[15:44] {Threei} mags... ever reshorted RIMM?
[15:46] {magoo} several
[15:46] {magoo} right now too
[15:47] {magoo} sh from .03
[15:47] {Threei} :)
[15:51] {magoo} cov here .58
[15:51] {magoo} TY
[15:51] {Threei} good one
[15:52] {Threei} US SENATOR GRASSLEY: OIL SPECULATION INCREASE IN TAXES COULD AFFECT HEDGE FUNDS
[15:52] {Threei} {USO}
[15:53] {Threei} okay guys, thank you all,
[15:53] {Threei} not very active but fairly nice day
[15:53] {Threei} have a good evening
[15:53] {Threei} see you all tomorrow
[15:53] {lars} thx Vad... good day
[15:53] {peterg} bye for now
[15:55] {magoo} ty vad..c u mortrow
[15:56] {magoo} thanx all
[15:57] {lars} tomorrow magoo :)
[15:58] {magoo} good job lars..u da man!!
[15:58] {fernp} bye
[15:59] {magoo} femp:)
[15:59] {magoo} peterg:)