RealityTrader Trading Log

Thursday, July 24, 2008

Jul 24 2008

Session Time: Thu Jul 24 00:00:03 2008

[08:12] {Threei} PREVIEW: US INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS DATA DUE OUT AT 8:30 AM ET
[08:12] {Threei} - Expectations for initial claims are 380K v prior release of 366K.
[08:12] {Threei} - Continuing claims seen at 3.160M v prior 3.122M.
[08:13] {hawkfan4} good morning
[08:13] {Threei} Good morning early birds
[08:13] {tomg} good morning
[08:13] {Threei} tom :)
[08:18] {Threei} QCOM
[08:18] {Threei} NOKIA TO PAY A SUBSTANITAL UPFRONT PAYMENT - CON CALL
[08:18] {Threei} 07:39am [QCOM] Guides Q4 adjusted EPS $0.49-0.51 v $0.54e, R $2.5-2.7B v $2.71Be - conference slides
[08:19] {Threei} 07/23/08 07:29pm [QCOM] Reports Q3 $0.55 (pro forma) v $0.55e, R $2.80B v $2.71Be
[08:20] {Threei} REPORTEDY CTFC TO ANNOUNCE ENFORCEMENT CASE RALATING TO CRUDE OIL PROBE
[08:23] {Threei} 06:05am [NCC] Reports Q2 -$2.45 v -$0.26e, R $1.45B v $1.78Be - ROE and ROA not provided. - Net interest margin 2.97% v 3.59% y/y. - Provision for loan losses $1.59B v $1.39B y/y.
[08:24] {Threei} Q2 -$2.45 v -$0.26e, and thing is gapping up?
[08:26] {Threei} 07/23/08 04:01pm [AMZN] Reports Q2 $0.37 v $0.26e, R $4.06B v $3.95Be
[08:26] {Threei} - Guides Q3 Rev $4.20-4.43B v $4.23Be
[08:26] {Threei} - Guides FY08 Rev $19.35B-$20.1B v $19.6Be
[08:26] {Threei} - Q2 gross margin 23.6% v 24.2% y/y
[08:30] {Threei} PIMCO'S BILL GROSS NOTES THAT $5T WORTH OF MORTGAGE LOANS ARE CLASSIFIED AS 'RISKY', SEES $1T IN CUMULATIVE LOSSES FROM 'BUBBLE'
[08:30] {Threei} INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS: 406K V 380KE
[08:30] {Threei} CONTINUING CLAIMS: 3.107M V 3.160ME
[08:36] {judijim} good morning all
[08:37] {Threei} jj :)
[08:51] {Threei} quite a drop FNM
[08:52] {pita} gm everyone
[08:52] {Threei} pita :)
[08:53] {cosmo} QCOM up 21% .....so far
[08:54] {Threei} yeah... reports are mixed but NOK settlement aids bottom line
[08:54] {cosmo} ah....good day in court
[08:55] {Threei} {NOK} uhhu
[09:02] {Threei} IRAN'S AGHAZADEH SAYS THAT IT HAD 'CONSTRUCTIVE' COOPERATION WITH UN INSPECTORS
[09:04] {fernp} Good morning all
[09:04] {Threei} fern :)
[09:19] {esemde} morning....was out golfing yesterday and didn't make it back to the room...How as your day?
[09:19] {Threei} ese :)
[09:19] {Threei} quite active
[09:19] {esemde} thas How was your Day?
[09:19] {esemde} morning Vad
[09:20] {dptl} good morning all
[09:20] {esemde} dp
[09:20] {Threei} I am slow... just thought of alerting QCOM short at 54.35...
[09:21] {Threei} dp :)
[09:21] {Threei} if bounces closer to .50 resistance, worth considering
[09:21] {Threei} small shares, tight stop
[09:22] {Threei} ese, one trading idea we exploited yesterday, worth watching today as well:
[09:22] {Threei} trading UAUA off USO, inverse relation
[09:25] {Threei} 08:56am WSJ: FCC Chairman notes agreement in principle on XMSR and SIRI, vote 3-2 on deal agreement
[09:28] {Threei} anyone got that jump to .40 QCOM?
[09:28] {Threei} perfect short
[09:29] {hawkfan4} no, but took FNM off the fast drop to 15
[09:29] {Threei} :)
[09:29] {hawkfan4} :)
[09:29] {hawkfan4} thx
[09:31] {Threei} XMSR interesting for bounce if drops into .40 - .60 area
[09:31] {Threei} QCOM super risky long on .54 break
[09:31] {Threei} small shares
[09:33] {Roman} 21 chk
[09:33] {Roman} 21 CHK
[09:33] {Roman} 21 long
[09:33] {Roman} 21 47.82
[09:33] {Threei} got away...
[09:34] {Roman} 21 HK
[09:34] {Threei} FNM coming into support again
[09:34] {Roman} 21 long HK small.50
[09:35] {Roman} 21 NCOC
[09:35] {Roman} 21 long setup
[09:36] {Threei} XMSR
[09:36] {Threei} watch for strength
[09:36] {Threei} 10.20 closest support
[09:36] {Threei} QCOM valid again if not losing .75 anymore
[09:37] {Roman} 21 long NCOC small off 6.20
[09:38] {Threei} XMSR no sign of bounce so far
[09:38] {Roman} 21 TXCO had great numbers
[09:38] {Roman} 21 record sales this morning
[09:40] {Roman} 21 energy bounces today
[09:40] {Roman} 21 ROYL watching
[09:40] {Roman} 21 imo
[09:40] {peterg} gm
[09:40] {Threei} peter :)
[09:40] {Threei} over 1:1 QCOM
[09:40] {Threei} and feels not done
[09:40] {Threei} but risk is huge on it
[09:40] {Threei} so secure profit
[09:41] {Threei} half out .40
[09:41] {Threei} scalpers grab your profit and be happy
[09:41] {Threei} ARBA??
[09:42] {Threei} what the?
[09:43] {Threei} stop .89 for QCOM balance
[09:44] {Threei} anyone sees anything on ARBA?
[09:45] {peterg} watching ARBA makes me want to buy it
[09:46] {Threei} resist the temptation...
[09:46] {peterg} right
[09:46] {Threei} it'll drop like crazy the second after you succumb
[09:46] {Threei} but first pullback is usually bought
[09:46] {Threei} so it will give a chance
[09:47] {Threei} there you go - right on cue, would have killed your wentry
[09:47] {Threei} -w
[09:47] {peterg} killed em both
[09:48] {Threei} entry and wentry?
[09:48] {peterg} yep
[09:48] {Threei} observing USO/UAUA, relation is there
[09:50] {Threei} let ARBA come to you, 15.50 is the only more or less real support for it
[09:50] {Threei} if it bottoms out too high just let it be
[09:51] {peterg} too strong for short?
[09:52] {Threei} can't tell really... it moves on no news, possibly hyped somewhere... can run inti nasty short squeeze
[09:52] {Threei} or can just run out of gas and die
[09:52] {Threei} no way to tell really
[09:53] {kazaam} NSC, first market strength might breakout
[09:53] {kazaam} ?
[09:53] {Threei} stock shoots up buck and half with no downtick
[09:53] {Threei} yes kaz
[09:54] {Threei} typical salmonish formation
[09:54] {kazaam} in @ .97
[09:54] {Threei} keep stop around .85
[09:57] {kazaam} out +.20
[09:58] {Threei} nice one
[09:58] {Threei} spotting patterns well eh?
[09:58] {Threei} FNM, 86 long if holding above .70
[09:58] {kazaam} only when i trade small lots, hehe
[09:59] {Threei} matter of time and experience
[09:59] {Threei} small lot - less psuchological pressure - clear vision
[09:59] {peterg} bk in hr--have fn
[10:00] {kazaam} yep, its amazing how easy things get with almost nothing at risk
[10:00] {Threei} ptr stoppd usng vwels
[10:00] {Threei} UNE EXISTING HOME SALES: 4.86M V 4.94ME, -2.6% M/M
[10:00] {peterg} tks 2 mch tm
[10:01] {Threei} SEC'S COX: IT IS A MISTAKE TO REGULATE INVESTMENT BANKS LIKE COMMERCIAL BANKS
[10:01] {Threei} kaz... that's why the procedure described in Practical Trading chapter of MPP
[10:03] {Threei} even more amazing thing is,
[10:04] {Threei} with almost nothing at risk, as you put it, you still have fairly reasonable return
[10:04] {peterg} I am in small lots & I like my training wheels, most of the time
[10:04] {kazaam} very true, better than -100-200 a day
[10:05] {Threei} there you go
[10:05] {Threei} risk-reward equation has kind of bell curve
[10:05] {Threei} there is a reason for that
[10:05] {Threei} but that's theory, let's leave it for another time
[10:10] {esemde} long VISN 1/2 lot 18.06
[10:10] {esemde} slow climber
[10:11] {esemde} had bstop in.....and for a second or 2 i wasn't even sure i'd been filled
[10:14] {esemde} bit of a gamble here....probably should have waited until 18.25...previous days high
[10:15] {esemde} stop 17.79
[10:24] {Threei} UAUA
[10:25] {Threei} .91 long if stays above .80
[10:25] {Threei} and if USO resusmes downward
[10:26] {esemde} stop to 18.00 VISN
[10:31] {esemde} Out VISN 18.10
[10:32] {esemde} +.04......was goin nowhere
[10:32] {Threei} better than poke in the eye
[10:32] {esemde} opps...would've been stopped anyway
[10:33] {Threei} IMF: US STEPS FOR GSES ARE LEADING IN A GOOD DIRECTION
[10:33] {Threei} - Notes that the IMF board discussed the US econoic landscape{FRE FNM}
[10:33] {esemde} daily chart looked good
[10:33] {Threei} no worky UAUA
[10:34] {Threei} QCOM
[10:34] {Threei} bounce-worthy selloff
[10:35] {Threei} bidding 51.40
[10:35] {Threei} too optimistic
[10:36] {Threei} awww... UAUA rinse
[10:44] {esemde} CECO ...the everready battery....
[10:46] {pita} day job calls...again - good trading yall
[10:46] {Threei} take care pita
[10:47] {Threei} USO makes quite pronounced moves today
[10:47] {Threei} not easy readable though
[10:52] {Threei} what the heck is going on? :)
[10:53] {hawkfan4} no idea
[10:53] {hawkfan4} 10:50 COMDX Natural Gas continues to plunge on bearish inventory data; now -0.579 at 9.209 -Update-
[10:54] {Threei} USI chart reminds of whack-a-mole game
[10:54] {Threei} USO
[10:57] {Threei} new sharp downtick USO is coming it seems
[10:58] {kazaam} does SNA seem overextended?
[10:58] {Threei} slow climb... can continue just as well
[10:58] {Threei} right on USO
[10:59] {Threei} hard core scalpers can have UAUA multiple paus of these moves
[11:01] {Threei} maybe some deveopments in negotiations with Iran not made public yet...
[11:02] {Threei} or this:
[11:02] {Threei} CFTC: CHARGES OPTIVER WITH MANIPULATING CRUDE, GASOLINE AND HEATING OIL TRADING
[11:02] {Threei} {USO}
[11:02] {Threei} I don't know who Optiver is but if shrging him send oil down, let's charge him twice
[11:04] {peterg} RIMM anyone?
[11:05] {Threei} no read peter
[11:05] {Threei} RIMM moves with market, and market for some reason doesn't react much on oil move
[11:06] {Chaeron} Good morning everyone
[11:06] {Threei} chaeron :)
[11:10] {esemde} CCCCCHHHHHHH BABY!!!!!!!
[11:11] {esemde} long time hail!!!!
[11:11] {Chaeron} ese!!!!! welcome back !
[11:12] {esemde} tks
[11:12] {esemde} just gettin into the swing of things
[11:17] {kazaam} wishin i held on to SNA for more than 10 cents
[11:21] {peterg} wow sna
[11:22] {Threei} FNM
[11:22] {Threei} break of 14 looks right for long
[11:36] {peterg} quiet
[11:36] {peterg} all asleep
[11:36] {peterg} or making money without me
[11:37] {peterg} uh oh short sales to be restricted on whole market says cox
[11:37] {Threei} as much as I tempted to say that's the case...
[11:38] {Threei} will have to admit, today is way less active and readable
[11:39] {Threei} where do you see it peter?
[11:39] {peterg} DJ Newswires
[11:40] {peterg} part of Fidelity Active Trader Pro
[11:41] {hawkfan4} 11:10 SEC's Cox says intends to extend short-sale protections mkt-wide - DJ
[11:41] {Threei} oh
[11:41] {peterg} I love it when they protect us
[11:41] {Threei} saw it at 11:09 on my wire
[11:41] {Threei} thought something new
[11:41] {Threei} SEC'S COX NOTES THAT THE SEC IS STUDYING POSSIBILITIES OF NEW UPTICK RULE THAT MAY INVOLVE NICKELS AND DIMES V PRIOR PENNY RULE
[11:41] {Threei} - Regulation would also rule out any naked short selling
[11:42] {Chaeron} then just bring back 1/8ths :)
[11:42] {peterg} or pounds and pence
[11:42] {Chaeron} lol
[11:43] {Chaeron} we can all meet under a buttonwood tree :)
[11:44] {peterg} Broad St, maybe
[12:08] {Threei} yawn
[12:09] {peterg} story: so the wife sez, (we're in minnesota) 3m hits new low, time to buy.
[12:09] {hawkfan4} seems like everyone's waiting for oil to make up it's mind for the day
[12:09] {peterg} I did yesterday for longterm retirement (hah!) acct. makn money
[12:10] {peterg} old folk
[12:10] {peterg} story
[12:10] {peterg} oil--whats that
[12:15] {Threei} I need some entertainment
06[12:15] * Threei slaps laserdave1 around a bit with a large trout
06[12:15] * Chaeron slaps laserdave1 around a bit with a large trout
[12:16] {dptl} looks like fun.....can i try that?
[12:16] {Threei} can?
[12:16] {Threei} you must
[12:16] {dptl} lol
06[12:16] * dptl slaps laserdave1 around a bit with a large trout
[12:16] {dptl} it is fun :)
[12:17] {Threei} of course... why do you think we do it regularly
[12:17] {laserdave1} dptl even gettting a round in
[12:17] {laserdave1} wow
[12:17] {laserdave1} i guess u need to take Magooos place
[12:17] {laserdave1} for this week
06[12:18] * laserdave1 slaps Threei around a bit with a large trout
[12:18] {dptl} :)
[12:26] {Threei} hmmm
[12:26] {Threei} wait... am I supposed to be slapped at all?
[12:29] {laserdave1} well to be honest
[12:29] {laserdave1} i was lookign for the feature on here
[12:29] {laserdave1} how to kick someone in balls with steel army boots
[12:29] {laserdave1} but didnt see it
[12:29] {laserdave1} :)
[12:29] {Threei} that's for platinum members only
[12:29] {dptl} roflol
[12:29] {laserdave1} u know i love you Vad star
[12:30] {Threei} you pay serious premium for that privilege
[12:30] {laserdave1} i saw u had something before u were able to do with army boots
[12:30] {laserdave1} hmmm
[12:30] {laserdave1} i might have to go platinum then
[12:30] {Threei} small administrative fee of just 19,999.99 A MONTH GIVES YOU ACCESS TO THOSE BOOTS
[12:31] {laserdave1} hahahahhahaha
[12:33] {Threei} possible asharp downtick USO is coming
[12:33] {Threei} if materializes watch for UAUA sdcalp
[12:34] {Threei} here we go
[12:35] {Threei} {dptl} how do you do that?
[12:35] {dptl} ye..how?
[12:35] {Threei} magic
[12:46] {Threei} FNM 13 break long scalp
[12:46] {kazaam} vad, was MTL a good capitulation play?
[12:46] {Threei} in hindsight, sure
[12:47] {Threei} real time, very questinable whether it was possible to catch bottom
[12:48] {Threei} WHITE HOUSE: PRESIDENT BUSH'S ADVISORS WOULD ADVISE HIM TO VETO ANY BILL SEEKING DRAW DOWNS FROM THE SPR
[12:48] {kazaam} my intuition told me to buy but I dont do C or E plays, so technically that would be a very risky setup? generally you would look for double bottom formation with volume confirmation?
[12:48] {Threei} is this what spiked the oil??
[12:48] {Threei} what bs
[12:49] {Threei} right kaz
[12:49] {kazaam} alright, gotcha, maybe someday i will take some c/e plays
[12:50] {kazaam} fnm break 13
[12:50] {Threei} come on FNM, break already
[12:52] {kazaam} better to wait till break?
[12:52] {Threei} yes
[12:53] {Threei} 13 proves to hold times and again
[12:53] {Threei} break is needed to trigger spike
[12:56] {Threei} see?
[12:57] {kazaam} yep yep
[13:19] {Threei} not liking today'
[13:19] {Threei} s actin
[13:19] {Threei} tides change with no rhythm
[13:34] {judijim} Judi's off to office, be back tomorrow
[13:40] {Threei} feels like USO upside is done
[13:40] {Threei} feel doesn't contribute much today, but for what it's worth
[14:18] {esemde} signing off everyone...have a great rest of the day
[14:19] {Chaeron} bye ese!
[14:19] {esemde} see ya CH...
[14:19] {kazaam} tks, have a good day too
[14:19] {esemde} kaz
[14:22] {peterg} ciao
[14:22] {dptl} vphm?
[14:25] {Threei} really not sure
[14:25] {dptl} ok ty
[14:31] {peterg} back later, ttfn
[14:44] {Threei} US HOUSE REJECTS BILL THAT WOULD DRAW DOWN AND SELL 70M BARRELS OF OIL FROM SPR
[14:46] {cosmo} its all gonna leak out anyway....sheesh
[14:47] {Threei} or evaporate
[14:47] {cosmo} that's controlled
[14:49] {Threei} controlled evaporation?
[14:49] {cosmo} EPA requires it
[14:53] {Threei} there was a report that after impementing short sales ban shorting declined by 90% on financial stocks
[14:53] {Threei} soooo... why is FNM 4 bucks off it's day high
[14:54] {Threei} what a useless exercise
[14:54] {Threei} as if shorting drives stocks down, and without it they wouldn't
[14:56] {Threei} PIMCO'S MCCULLEY FEELS AS THOUGH THERE WILL BE NO 'ARMAGEDDON' SCENARIO IN THE US ECONOMY
[14:57] {Threei} lol
[14:57] {Threei} some comments go beyond ridiculous
[14:58] {cosmo} some are magnets for the real thing too
[14:59] {cosmo} karma, ya know
[14:59] {Threei} no kidding
[14:59] {Threei} get 10 of them say "don't panic, there won't be any Armageddon"
[14:59] {Threei} and you have full blown panic spreading like a wildfire
[15:00] {cosmo} in a high rise
[15:03] {Threei} now, today's trading feels like your normal summer
[15:20] {Threei} WM
[15:20] {Threei} TO ISSUE STATEMENT SHORTLY ON THE 'GIMME CREDIT' REPORT ISSUED THIS MORNING
[15:20] {Threei} - note: some of the weakness on WaMu today has been attributed to a report from 'Gimme Credit,' which stated WM is showing declining reliance on CP and shifting to reliance on wholesale deposits. CNBC's Faber noted this report, but said the 'Gimme Credit' analysis was backward, that greater reliance on wholesale deposits would be a postive for WaMu.
[15:25] {Threei} I start really looking foward for oil to reverse back down... UAUA retreat is so significant, upside is going to be great
[15:34] {Threei} WM REPONDS TO GIMME CREDIT, NOTES COMPANY DOES NOT RELY ON COMMERCIAL PAPER, FUNDS ALL FUNCTIONS OF BUSINESS THROUGH ITS OPERATIONS
[15:37] {Threei} UAUA tradeable bounce is coming with NQ bounce
[15:38] {Threei} in .83, .79 stop
[15:38] {Threei} just a scalp
[15:42] {Threei} to take teny tine scalp or not to take
[15:43] {Threei} that is the question
[15:43] {Threei} gosh, what's my risk... 4 cents
[15:43] {Threei} already 1:2.5 {G}
[15:45] {Threei} ok,.93 out
[15:45] {Threei} +.10
[15:45] {jmb} thanks Vad
[15:45] {Threei} welcome :)
[15:45] {fernp} also here TY
[15:45] {Threei} :)
[15:45] {Threei} gotta break boredom and keep fingers exercised
[15:46] {Threei} OK guys, won't be doing anything on last minutes, it's not a day to press
[15:46] {Threei} have a great evening, see you tomorrow
[15:46] {kazaam} adios
[15:46] {fernp} bye
[15:47] {dptl} yeah...fighting to keep my eyes open today :)...but 6out of 6
[15:47] {dptl} have a good evening all :)