RealityTrader Trading Log

Monday, July 14, 2008

Jul 14 2008

Session Start: Mon Jul 14 01:28:51 2008


[08:03] {Threei} CNBC'S STEVE LIESMAN REPORTS THAT SOURCES AT TREASURY FEEL THAT GSES 'DO NOT HAVE A LIQUIDITY PROBLEM', DO NOT EXPECT THEM TO USE CREDIT LINES
[08:03] {Threei} - if lines are used they may be charged penalty rate{FNM}
[08:04] {Threei} SOLF
[08:04] {Threei} AWARDED 47MW SALES CONTRACT WITH SCHUCO
[08:04] {Threei} - Under the terms of the agreement, Solarfun has agreed to supply a total of 47.0 MW of PV modules to Schuco at a fixed price to be delivered according to a binding delivery schedule from December 2008 to October 2009.
[08:04] {Threei} - The PV modules are intended to be installed in major projects in south-east Europe and the Middle-East.
[08:32] {Threei} IMMU
[08:32] {Threei} ANNOUNCES WORLDWIDE LICENSE AND COLLABORATION AGREEMENT WITH NYCOMED FOR VELTUZUMAB FOR NON-CANCER INDICATIONS
[08:40] {hawkfan4} good morning Vad, all
[08:42] {cosmo} CRME pre mkt high = 11 fyi
[08:44] {cosmo} gonna test
[08:47] {Threei} good morning
[08:47] {Threei} hawk, where have you been man
[08:47] {Threei} you would have made a killing on Friday
[08:49] {Threei} FRE
[08:49] {Threei} PREVIEW: EXPECT RESULTS OF $3B 3 AND 6-MONTH BILL AUCTION AT OR AROUND 9:45AM ET
[08:49] {Threei} - the weekly auction is a modest $3B, but is likely to act as vote of confidence in the agencies if it demonstates good participation as is generally expected. Over the past two months, the money market yields on Freddie Mac reference bills have averaged roughly 25 basis points above OIS for the 90-day bills and 30 basis points for 6-month bills. Cover ratios have averaged nearly 2.90 for 3-month bills and 2.50 for 6-month bills{FNM}
[08:49] {hawkfan4} was in Florida, had my laptop but my broadband card wouldn't work there, so i actually took the whole week off. I missed a good one?
[08:50] {Threei} Friday
[08:50] {Threei} FRE and FNM were killer trades
[08:50] {Threei} readable, wide range
[08:54] {cosmo} CRME: # Cardiome Announces Positive Phase 2b Results For Oral VernakalantPR Newswire(Mon 8:25am)
[08:54] {hawkfan4} reading the logs, looks very nice
[08:54] {Threei} one of those days... could do no wrong
[08:54] {Threei} nice gap CRME
[08:55] {cosmo} 11
[09:02] {cosmo} should 10.60
[09:02] {cosmo} hold
[09:03] {cosmo} 10.50 must hold
[09:04] {peterg} Hola!
[09:04] {Threei} peter, welcome back
[09:04] {peterg} Thanks, good to be back; but life on the Continent is not so bad
[09:04] {Threei} how was the trip?
[09:04] {peterg} Mallorca, Paris, wonderful
[09:05] {Threei} :)
[09:08] {magoo} miorning
[09:08] {Threei} magoo :)
[09:11] {Threei} CEO: FNM HOLDS MORE THAN ADEQUATE CAPITAL RESERVES
[09:11] {judijim} good morning all
[09:12] {Threei} jj :)
[09:12] {dino} gm all
[09:12] {Threei} dino :)
[09:13] {dptl} good morning all
[09:13] {Threei} dp :)
[09:19] {dino} magoo said i missed a wild friday
[09:19] {Threei} yeah :(
[09:21] {Threei} 09:19am [XING] Reports FY08 Rev $531.1M (+20.3% y/y) (no est)
[09:27] {cosmo} CRME should hold 10.80 imho
[09:32] {Threei} 13.01 long FNM if stays above 12.90
[09:33] {Threei} UPDATE: LEHMAN CONSIDERING OPTIONS FOR SLOWING THE STOCK DROP INCLUDING CONSIDERING SHARE BUY BACK - WSJ
[09:33] {Threei} - WSJ reports Lehman also in talks with Korean financial firms for a possible stake sale
[09:39] {dino} yeah, good idea buy back stock when you need to raise capital, c'mon.....
[09:39] {dino} idiots
[09:39] {magoo} markets open weaker than i would expect
[09:42] {magoo} vad, rimm bouncer somewhere
[09:43] {Threei} don't know... looks still down to me
[09:44] {Threei} 110 is serious breakdown which I'd rather be shorting
[09:45] {GeoArb} true dino but i think the want to buy back stocks to force shorts to locate and short squeeze
[09:45] {magoo} ok..ty
[09:47] {dino} maybe so, but if they need capital, they should not be buying back stock, look what happened to ncc
[09:47] {Threei} FRE
[09:47] {Threei} COMPLETES $3B BILL AUCTION RESULTS; BID-TO-COVER RATIOS, 3-MONTH AND 6-MONTH
[09:47] {Threei} - Spread over Treasury v 103bps prior
[09:47] {Threei} - Deal seen at 2.34-2.35%
[09:52] {Threei} MYGN
[09:52] {Threei} small shares long .50
[09:52] {Threei} stop under .20
[09:53] {Threei} not a scalp most likely
[09:58] {Threei} stop to under .30
[09:58] {Threei} LEH, what a disaster
[09:59] {Threei} PRESIDENT BUSH PLANS TO LIFT BAN ON OFF SHORE DRILLING
[09:59] {Threei} {USO}
[10:00] {dino} good
[10:00] {Threei} what's with IMGN?
[10:01] {Threei} no go MYGN
[10:02] {Threei} was capable of scalp... really expected more of it
[10:05] {Threei} FNM, first long try on pullback to .50
[10:06] {Threei} LEH .65 long
[10:06] {Threei} if stays above .50
[10:07] {Threei} let FNM go for now
[10:08] {Threei} LEH half out
[10:08] {Threei} scalpers take profit
[10:10] {Threei} stop for the balance to under .60
[10:14] {Threei} out 1/4 more LEH +.45
[10:16] {Threei} out LEH in full + something good
[10:16] {Threei} .55 or something
[10:17] {dino} v sm, risky, l gs .50
[10:20] {dino} gj
[10:26] {Threei} SQNM half lot long .90 if styas above .75
[10:33] {Threei} VPHM .30 long if stays above .20
[10:42] {Threei} no go VPHM
[10:55] {dino} artc sm l .99, stop lod
[11:04] {Threei} RIMM short 110 break
[11:04] {Threei} stop above .20
[11:05] {Threei} invalidated
[11:09] {Threei} IBM long half lot.25 if stays above .10
[11:13] {Threei} RIMM fooled us eh?
[11:13] {Threei} ruined setup, then triggered and worked like charm
[11:13] {Threei} IBM over 1:1 for scalpers
[11:14] {hawkfan4} lots of that today, vphm worked too after a quick rinse
[11:14] {Threei} yep
[11:14] {Threei} 1:2 IBM
[11:15] {Threei} 1:3, no reason to stay in who is still holding
[11:15] {hawkfan4} out .65, thx
[11:16] {Threei} :)
[11:17] {Threei} just in time eh?
[11:17] {hawkfan4} definitely :)
[11:18] {Threei} look at SQNM
[11:18] {Threei} did same thing as RIMM
[11:19] {Threei} invalidated setup, then went big
[11:19] {Threei} MER
[11:19] {Threei} .51 long
[11:20] {Threei} .39 sop
[11:24] {dino} out artc .38, +.39
[11:24] {Threei} LEH short
[11:24] {Threei} as close to 14 as you can get, stop above 14.10
[11:25] {dino} lod's markets
[11:25] {Threei} feels like breakdown is coming
[11:26] {Threei} in
[11:27] {Threei} got .97
[11:29] {Threei} stopped
[11:50] {Threei} FRE
[11:50] {Threei} TREASURER BITSBERGER: RECENT BILL SALE WAS 'BUSINESS AS USUAL', FOREIGN DEMAND FOR BILLS 'UNRELENTING'
[11:50] {Threei} WM
[11:50] {Threei} TICKING LOWER, HEARING WEAKNESS ATTRIBUTED TO COMMENTS FROM JIM CRAMER
[11:50] {Threei} LEHMAN MAKING CAUTIOUS COMMENTS, WM COULD TAKE $4B IN PROVISIONS FOR LOAN LOSSES IN Q2 (TIMING UNCERTAIN)
[11:50] {Threei} - Lehman sees WaMu Q2 charge offs of $1.8B
[11:52] {Threei} LEH rinsed... working now
[11:53] {Threei} watching for bounce to short into
[11:54] {Threei} WM starts looking like next IMB
[11:54] {Threei} WB short
[11:54] {Threei} right here
[11:54] {Threei} stop over .50
[11:55] {Threei} NCC halted
[11:55] {Threei} another financial
[11:56] {Threei} grrr LEH
[11:56] {Chaeron} Hi all... begining of end of world?
[11:56] {Threei} yup
[11:57] {Chaeron} I suggest shortening it to EOW... no no, it's not a symbol
[11:58] {Threei} WB over half out
[11:58] {Threei} over 1:1
[11:58] {Threei} covered half .11, +.32
[11:58] {Threei} .23, sorry
[11:59] {Threei} stop to .31
[11:59] {Threei} out
[11:59] {Threei} NCC
[11:59] {Threei} SSUES STATEMENT IN RESPONSE TO MARKET RUMORS
[11:59] {Threei} - "National City is experiencing no unusual depositor or creditor activity. As of the close of Friday's business, the bank maintained more than $12B of excess short-term liquidity. Further, as a result of our recent $7 billion capital raise, National City maintains one of the highest Tier I regulatory capital ratios among large banks."
[11:59] {Threei} wow... halt for good news?
[11:59] {Threei} or at least spin
[12:00] {Threei} rare occurence these days
[12:02] {Threei} everyone's asleep? or someone's is till trading?
[12:02] {hawkfan4} here, got wb and some of leh, thx
[12:03] {patience} watching gold price, and u.s. financials....good scalping today though :)
[12:03] {Threei} WB shook out second half
[12:06] {Threei} Barney Frank on CNN
[12:07] {Threei} this is crisis of confidence, there is no solvency problem at FRE and FNM
[12:10] {Threei} 10 break worth another short try on WB if stays under 10.15
[12:11] {hawkfan4} watching it
[12:13] {Threei} tide maybe changing
[12:14] {Threei} backing away from shorting financials for the time being
[12:15] {Threei} not ready for long yet but lost conviction in short direction
[12:15] {Threei} LEH long .61 if holding above .45
[12:18] {Threei} FNM .11 long if stays above 10
[12:20] {magoo} in leh..in fnm
[12:21] {dino} v sm l rimm wide
[12:21] {dino} .70
[12:21] {Threei} this grinding out resistance so close to support looks fine to me
[12:21] {Threei} risk is small
[12:21] {Threei} and support held long enough to change the bias
[12:21] {Threei} LEH over 1:1 for scalper
[12:22] {Threei} FNM over 1:1 for scalpers
[12:25] {Threei} mama mia... just noticed FED
[12:25] {Threei} look at daily
[12:26] {Threei} what kind of mess are we in when so many of them go from 40-70 to under 5
[12:31] {dino} a big one
[12:50] {Chaeron} .
[12:51] {magoo} ..
[12:53] {Threei} all good points
[12:54] {magoo} anything to add?
[12:54] {Chaeron} +
[12:55] {Threei} FNM
[12:55] {Threei} 10 break long
[12:55] {Threei} stop under .85
[12:56] {Threei} LEH .90 long
[12:57] {Threei} yikes
[12:57] {dptl} stopped fnm
[12:57] {Threei} not sure what this drop is about, shake or another round of news somewhere
[12:58] {Threei} LEH and FRE hold, seems FNM specific
[13:06] {patience} what did MTB do?
[13:06] {Threei} bank
[13:06] {Threei} that says it all :)
[13:07] {patience} daily chart looks a little grim
[13:15] {Threei} FNM relentless selling
[13:24] {magoo} took leh
[13:24] {magoo} off 14
[13:24] {Threei} why that far from trigger?
[13:25] {magoo} it was having trouble..thoiugt 14 would get it goiung
[13:25] {Threei} SOLF
[13:25] {Threei} ADJUSTS Q1 EARNINGS TO $0.30 FROM $0.32; NO CHANGE IN 2008 BUSINESS OUTLOOK - FILING
[13:25] {Threei} - One of the Company’s polysilicon suppliers to whom it advanced $1.8 million for raw materials has failed to deliver agreed-upon quantities by the due dates.
[13:25] {Threei} - reminder: on 5/21, Reported Q1 $0.32 v $0.16e, R $171M v $142Me
[13:26] {Threei} FOX PITT SUGGESTS LEH SHOULD BE TAKEN PRIVATE AS HAS BEEN TARGETED BY THE 'FEAR TRADE'
[13:29] {dino} in the end, only gs will be standing
[13:31] {patience} i swear i hear sovereign wealth funds hovering, waiting to swoop in
[13:31] {Threei} great... we are for sale
[13:32] {dino} me too patience, and gs, and a few private funds for smaller fish
[13:33] {patience} vad, do you see a cup and handle on KGC? or is it me wishful thinking
[13:34] {Threei} there is... I just don't know how much we can rely on these things right now
[13:35] {patience} ty, it has been a decent trading day for me. I just keep looking over my left shoulder, then my right. Asking where did everybody go?}
[13:37] {Threei} I stopped even looking... I accepted as a cold hard fact that people simply don't want to talk to me
[13:38] {dino} i'm just not doing much today
[13:40] {Chaeron} I don't know if today is a charge ahead and do a lot type of day, so you appear wise to me, Dino
06[13:42] * Chaeron slaps laserdave1 around a bit with a large trout
[13:42] {dino} me wise....not! lol
[13:42] {dino} cautious, yes
[13:43] {magoo} only thing wise about dino is the bag of chips in his hand
[13:44] {dptl} mmsi?
[13:44] {Threei} US PRES BUSH CONFIRMS LIFT OF EXECUTIVE BAN ON OFFSHORE DRILLING, CONDEMNS THE 'LACK OF ACTION' BY CONGRESS ON THE ISSUE
[13:45] {Threei} thin dp... chart looks right but it doesn't take much to move it either weay
[13:45] {dptl} ok ty
[13:45] {dino} lol magoo
[13:47] {magoo} we bouincing on that vad??
[13:47] {Threei} nah
[13:48] {Threei} that's pretty much non-event in terms of today's trading
[14:01] {magoo} LAZERDCC
[14:08] {laserdave1} ok
[14:08] {Threei} took MMSI dp?
[14:09] {dptl} yep +.17
[14:09] {Threei} :)
[14:11] {Threei} barring new news items, looks like better bounce time for financials
[14:11] {Threei} Iooking for pullback to buy
[14:11] {Threei} FNM as close to 10 as possib;e
[14:13] {Threei} anywhere under .20
[14:14] {Threei} SENATE MAJORITY LEADER REID REITERATES PLANS TO PASS BILL TO CURB SPECULATION IN THE COMMODITIES MARKET
[14:14] {Threei} in FRE
[14:15] {Threei} probably missed FNM
[14:15] {magoo} u mean FNM correct?
[14:15] {Threei} ?
[14:16] {magoo} never mind
[14:16] {magoo} i gtchsa
[14:16] {Threei} FRE pulled from 7.25 to 7.07
[14:16] {kazaam} long fre? under .20?
[14:17] {Threei} no kaz, don't chase
[14:17] {Threei} under .20 was for FNM
[14:17] {Threei} FRE dropped right at that moment, was available at .08 - .10
[14:17] {Threei} close enough to 7 support
[14:25] {Threei} out FRE
[14:26] {Threei} ugh... why didn't FNM let us in
[14:28] {Threei} really hesitated to enter it around .30, hate the idea of chasing anything today
[14:28] {Threei} market is incredible fragile
[14:28] {hawkfan4} FRE nice vad, thx.
[14:28] {Threei} welcome
[14:28] {Threei} held for better exit than I did?
[14:28] {hawkfan4} no, took .31
[14:29] {Threei} wow... that was gutsy
[14:29] {hawkfan4} i mean for my exit, got .12 for entry
[14:34] {Threei} oh
[14:34] {Threei} sorry, misunderstood :)
[14:35] {Threei} than both our exits were, ummm
[14:35] {Threei} less than brilliant
[14:35] {hawkfan4} after my week off my brain hasn't quite hit it's stride, shaking off the effects of too many margaritas
[14:37] {dino} ahhh, that explains alot
[14:37] {hawkfan4} :)
[14:39] {Threei} hate it when I get a right read and don't utilize it
[14:39] {Threei} [14:11] {Threei} barring new news items, looks like better bounce time for financials
[14:40] {Threei} 30 minutes later they show respectable gowth, and all I have to show for it is 20 cents?
06[14:40] * Threei slaps Threei around a bit with a large trout
[14:42] {Threei} WM looks to me like new lows are in order
[14:47] {Threei} right on que
[14:47] {Threei} anyone shirted}
[14:47] {Threei} shorted
[14:47] {Threei} ?
[14:47] {Threei} don't cover it all IMO
[14:48] {magoo} nope
[14:48] {Threei} it's going lower
[14:49] {Threei} hard to tell where resistance is... bounces are shortable on it
[14:49] {Threei} well, clean resistance is .50 obviously... but there is not much technical in how it trades
[14:50] {Threei} WM looks to me not just one of beaten... rather as one going belly up
[14:50] {hawkfan4} 14:46 WM Washington Mutual ticks lower as Cramer on CNBC says he would hold off on buying WM, partially due to IndyMac's fold (31.17 -1.78) -Update-
[14:51] {Threei} hmmm
[14:51] {Threei} for once I agree with him
[14:51] {Threei} that's disturbing
[14:51] {Threei} given his recent history, maybe I am wrong on WM {GGG}
[14:53] {Chaeron} LASERDAVE DCC?
[14:54] {Threei} US REP MARKEY IS PROPOSING A BILL THAT WOULD MANDATE REMOVING 500K BBL/MONTH FROM THE SPR FOR SIX MONTHS
[14:54] {Threei} {USO }
[14:54] {Threei} hmm?
[14:54] {Threei} what's the point of it?
[14:54] {Chaeron} (you gotta admit, that's a cool nick to have in reallife... wonder if his friends and gf calls him that?)
[14:54] {Chaeron} smoke and mirrors, Threei
[14:55] {Threei} hehe, no doubt
[14:55] {Threei} but even in that, what would it accomplish?
[14:55] {Chaeron} add a pretty magician's assistant aned the public goes "ooooooooo..."
[14:56] {Chaeron} it's an election year?
[14:56] {Threei} some say so
[14:56] {dino} well at least gov't would make $ on it, they filled it much lower
[14:56] {Threei} how very nice for them
[14:57] {Chaeron} sure... buy low... sell much higher... and the govt is persecuting "speculators....
[14:57] {Threei} with all "start drilling, take oil from SPR"... price isn't retreating
[14:57] {Threei} what does it mean for the next oil move?
[14:58] {Threei} right... up, up and away
[14:58] {patience} cha ching in my pockets
[15:14] {Threei} sharp selling under 10 should give entry on FNM
[15:22] {dino} spike
[15:22] {magoo} NEWS vad??
[15:22] {magoo} spike
[15:23] {Threei} not tat I see
[15:25] {magoo} u see a putty tat?
[15:28] {Chaeron} i did
[15:32] {dptl} have a good evening all
[15:32] {Chaeron} bye dp
[15:32] {dino} u2 dp
[15:33] {Threei} take care dp
[15:33] {kazaam} cya dp
[15:33] {Threei} FNM .35 support, .50 level to break for another leg up
[15:35] {kazaam} whippy little guy
[15:40] {patience} out of Kinross ( (K), +.92 don't plan on being in much before Mr. Bernanke tomorrow
[15:41] {Threei} now with market drop we may get that under 10 dive... although I am not so sure it's worth a try for bounce
[15:41] {Chaeron} so short the 10 break?
[15:42] {Threei} nah
[15:42] {Chaeron} awww
[15:52] {Threei} nothing inspires me for the last scalp attempt here
[15:52] {Threei} WM will be on watch for short tomorrow
[15:52] {Threei} the rest is, well, players but who knows which way and at what levels
[15:53] {Threei} will be anothr day, another read deal
[15:54] {Threei} this is FNM drop I wanted
[15:54] {Threei} just too close to eod
[15:58] {Threei} OK guys, thank you all
[15:58] {Threei} have a good evening, let's get'em tomorrow
[15:59] {patience} Excellent day, ty vad
[15:59] {Chaeron} thank you Threei
[16:01] {dino} gj patience
[16:01] {dino} took fwlt from thurs off +1.00
[16:03] {patience} thanks dino, credit to vad for teaching me how to trade
[16:12] {dino} same here