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Sunday Links Letter Sample
to help your preparations for the next week,
Market Week Wrap-Up is at
Last Week, Next Week: Nemo's Findings is at http://tradinglog.realitytrader.com/2013/03/nemos-findings-week-of-march-24-2013.html
Those of you who haven't been in the room on Friday could do worse than review our Catch of the Day, namely BBRY short. Hard to find better illustration to one of the major tape reading principles - Smart Money dumping shares in the Crowd hands on the day of long-expected and positive event. Look it up at http://tradinglog.realitytrader.com/2013/03/march-22-2013.html.
Also, Barron’s Saturday Summary: Cautious on HPQ, BHP, RIO, VALE; Positive on KSS, MDLZ, DRI, CKH
- Cover story: Barrons list of the Worlds 30 Best CEOs --based on insight from investors, analysts, and industry executives-- includes 13 new names, such as GOOGs Larry Page, TSMs Morris Chang, and LVMHs Bernard Arnault; share prices of companies led by these CEOs have outstripped the S&P 500 during their tenures.
- Tech Trader: Cautious on HPQ: Tiernan Ray devotes his entire column to tech giant, which under the leadership of Meg Whitman is making improvements that are lifting expectations for profit and brightening prospect of return of cash to shareholders, despite persistence of problems and the fact service business will likely get worse before it gets better.
- Trader: While the pain for the Cypriot people is real, the stock market isnt worried about Cyprus, per se; Negative on BHP, RIO, VALE, FSUMF, CLF:
Amid a market rally, investors might be tempted to see mining stocks as a bargain, but they should think twice; Positive on KSS: Despite subdued Wall Street expectations, shares could return 20% over the next 12 to 18 months, stock presents a significant opportunity.
- Follow-Up: Negative on FNMA, FMCC: Expectations of eventual value are likely to be dashed, since firms are destined to be severely downsized and common and preferred shareholders will suffer if they are privatized; Positive on MDLZ: Company looks appealing whether or not PEP buys it, with strong profit outlook and exposure to developing world; Positive on BEN:
Has a strong distribution footprint overseas, making it less reliant on vagaries of U.S. market, and shares are trading at a discount.
1) Positive on DRI: Restaurant operator is cutting both menu prices and costs and plans to slow growth of some of its more mature brands, shares could rise 35% to $66.
2) Cautious on SRPT: Analysts expect ultimate FDA approval of promising Duchenne muscular dystrophy drug eteplirsen, but shares will rise or fall depending on whether company seeks accelerated approval, and will likely collapse if drug fails.
3) Positive on GILD, GOOG, FRX, INTC, EMC: Among technology and drug companies boosting R&D spending, which could mean lower profits today but fatter ones in the future, allowing investors to effectively buy into new products before theyre even announced.
4) Positive on CKH: Shares of major operator of work boats are trading 20% below book value while it has often traded at a 25% premium, a classic buying signal, and shares could pop 25% as Gulf drilling picks up.
- Asian Trader: Negative on BYD (1211.HK): Company has suffered from slow build-out of infrastructure for electric car market, and has failed to execute well on other initiatives.
- Commodities: Marine transportation sector should see boost from North American energy boom (positive on STNG, GASS, GLNG, GMLP).
- Streetwise: Joseph Tanious, global market strategist at JPMorgan Funds, thinks earnings estimates are overly optimistic; Positive on WTR, AWK, HEK, VE, XYL, GRC: Companies are among those likely to benefit from continued boom in U.S. natural gas production.
Finally, from the Land of Lunacy, a.k.a. EU:
(CY) Cyprus and Troika agree on a 20% levy on deposits above €100K at Bank of Cyprus (largest bank) and 4% levy above €100K at all other banks; Deal still needs to be approved by Cyprus Parliament - financial press
- Report citing senior Cyprus govt official also noting the plan to tap nationalised pension funds would not be part of a plan for the the EU bailout.
- Cyprus Fin Min Sarris: "Significant progress has been made towards achieving an agreement with the troika... several issues arose that need further working on."
- Eurozone fin mins to hold a meeting in Brussels on Sunday evening to determine whether the financials behind the latest framework generate sufficient funds.
- EU's Rehn: Critical that the final deal on Cyprus is reached by Sunday evening; Near-term for Cypurs will be very difficult.
- Says: "Unfortunately, the events of recent days have led to a situation where there are no longer any optimal solutions available. Today, there are only hard choices left." (DUH!)
Have a nice weekend!
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